MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN TRANSPORT LOGISTICS

The article considers the business processes at transport logistics enterprises as 
 a chain of clear regulations, where noncompliance or delay one them results in disruption whole process. Risk management is key tasks requiring development modeling tools and prevention undesirable situations. There has been shown structural model risk failure to achieve strategic goal cargo port, supplemented by several levels consideration. tree goals enterprise was built. Failure particular considered situation, risk. A set factors for assessing its implementation opposed each goal, formulas calculating indicators used are given. scenarios all existing significant risks developed. multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic model, cascade main port/transport proposed. idea need link together technology formalizing using constructed models simulation, interpretation possible logical probabilistic scenarios. proposed make it carry out comprehensive analysis port based on scenario formalization various management, well simplify process interpreting simulation taking into account external influence. integrated use these basis timely decisions. Particular attention paid description constructing logical, types.